Thursday, July 9, 2015

The whole truth about the Greek crisis

The whole truth about the Greek crisis 
Greeks crisis, because they are - a bunch of lazy defaulters, right? After all, they only work 10 months a year, and get both 14. They retire at 25 and then sit in a cafe sipping ouzo. They live on handouts from Germany and deceive the tax service. Troika - the European Commission, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - again and again tried to help them, but they just do not listen. And now they are quite insolent and refuse to pay even a fraction of the debt. Is that right? And here and there. Almost everything you say about the Greek crisis - complete nonsense. That's why. 
1. Greeks have already tightened their belts even more than they asked for. Five years ago, having concluded an agreement to rescue the Greek government reduce costs, increase taxes and turned the primary deficit (before interest debt) for 24 billion euros in surplus of 3 billion euros. The move has helped them to reduce debt more than required. Not surprisingly, the IMF itself has called austerity measures "exceptional by any standards" and boasted "important progress" in reform. 

2. The real problem lies in the fact that the drug has not given the triple results. The IMF was originally predicted that austerity will generate rapid economic recovery in Greece since 2011, thanks to "restore confidence and market access." Yes, it's a quote from the agreement in 2010. The IMF forecast that in 2014 the economy will grow by more than 3% per year. "Unemployment is predicted to reach its peak of nearly 15% by 2012," - he said. Oh, Oshibochka out.Although the Greek government to reduce its debt, the economy just went back down.

3. All references cited "experts" are biased. Yes, on TV and on the Internet there are a lot of smart people, threatening finger at the Greeks. But they pretty much all work in the field of finance. Thus, their focus is on stocks, bonds and other financial assets, not urgent matters - jobs and incomes in Athens and Thessaloniki. Finance can be really important, but they, of course, the conversation ends. 

4. Greece is already in trouble. When another expert argues that the Greeks threatened economic disaster if they do not pay money to the top three or leave the euro zone, we should not take his word for it. Um, what? Gross domestic product fell by 25% in eight years. Imports decreased by 40%. The official unemployment rate is 25%. The disaster, you say? It has already happened. 

5. The country can not "generate" money belt tightening.Negotiations between the Greeks and the triple is actually a stopper whenever there is a question that the Greek government must again raise taxes or cut spending. This view is based on a "single accounts." Nevertheless, it is repeated again and again, even the representatives of reputable news agencies. If a country raises taxes or cut spending, it does not create money in general - it just passes them from one hand to another. 

6. Yes, the Greeks could quite easily go back to the drachma. All these pessimistic predictions - complete nonsense. Such events happened before - for example, in many countries of Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The International Monetary Fund and other international institutions then came to the rescue, and the transition was both successful and relatively painless. If they refuse to help the Greeks, it is a deliberate revenge for disobedience. 

7. Yes, the Greeks will be nice and without the euro. The British did not complain. And the Poles. And Scandinavia. And even the Icelanders, who have recovered from the 2008 financial crisis in part because they control their own currency. In fact, the IMF actually admitted that Greece could avoid such a crisis if it had not abandoned the drachma devalued and easy to exchange. The idea that Greece needs euro ludicrous. 

8. No, the Greeks did not cause this crisis alone. Let us remember those who have imposed their favorite "Europroject" to all, including to countries such as Greece, for whom the move was unsuccessful. Since Davos pets not just put forward its patented solution to the problem - the bread, water and cereal - and did not succeed. And they themselves are not so stupid as to suffer the own medicine. In Brussels, Frankfurt, London and Washington do not eat bread and water, and lobster Thermidor, Oysters Rockefeller, and washed down with Château d'Yquem. 

9. Just do not panic. This crisis is not much impact on the rest of the world. Greece's economy is approximately equal to the economy of Alabama. The markets have already written off most of the Greek financial assets. And the Greek crisis will spread "contagion" Only if the international policy permit. 

10. The proposed troika "solution" does not make sense. Should Greece to reform the pension system? It should broaden and simplify the tax base? Should the privatization of ports? Say yes. But none of that will help millions of people to return to work, income and expenses. With the same success can be treated gunshot wound "diet and exercise".

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