The strategic dynamic has changed in Ukraine with the growing power of Dmytro Yarosh and his neo-Nazi Right Sector troops.
Today Yarosh ordered 17 reserve battalions of Right Sector to prepare to march on Kiev for “forceful negotiations with the authorities” following deadly clashes with the police at Mukachevo.
The tense stand-off continues and Right Sector fighters are refusing to lay down their arms. Poroshenko reportedly has pulled heavy weapons from the Donbass frontline to send to Mukachevo and specialist SBU units are at the scene.
But there is an important dynamic at work here that the vast majority of people do not understand and it will take some careful explanation to get the message across so that people are in no doubt about what is at stake here.
First of all, I will establish my credentials on the subject by quoting the words of Russian diplomat Sergey Nalobin, who said to me on 9 May this year in London: “We have absolutely no one in Russia who understands the neo-Nazis like you do.”
Yarosh rose from obscurity during the Maidan revolution incited by the US Government at a cost $5bn to effect regime change and though Congress recently voted to cut-off funding to the neo-Nazi Azov Regiment – part of the National Guard of Ukraine – it is too late to tame the monster once it is unleashed.
Poroshenko, a puppet of Washington and Brussels, has to be one of the most self-deluded ‘leaders’ on earth if he thinks neo-Nazis can be persuaded to lay down their arms and return home to their mothers without an almighty battle.
In fact Poroshenko’s stupidity is only surpassed by the clowns at the White House who must have thought they could play the regime change game with neo-Nazi proxies in Ukraine and then quietly dispose of them.
A year ago, I predicted that Yarosh, Right Sector and the National Guard would become the dominant force in Ukraine and now it is happening in horrific fashion.
The battle at Mukachevo is the perfect pretext for Yarosh to flex his muscles with a show of military might to scare Poroshenko into seeing things his way or else. Some argue that the Mukachevo incident was staged by Yarosh for this very purpose.
Irrespective of covert plots, real or imagined, the salient fact remains that the entire socio-political and military dynamic has now changed in Ukraine in favour of the neo-Nazi volunteer battalions.
Some ‘experts’ argue that the [pathetic] Ukrainian Army can deal with the neo-Nazi spetz battalions but my experience of dealing with neo-Nazis convinces me that they would rather fight it out with the regular army than surrender.
Yarosh and his Right Sector army is not going to disappear from the stage without an almighty battle and in many cases this will mean a fight to the death which the regular army has proved it is not capable of fighting.
The perfect example of the Ukrainian Army being unfit for purpose is the war of aggression on Donbass, where the regular army was routed by the Militia and would have been defeated without the vital assistance of the neo-Nazi volunteer battalions who fought considerably harder than the regulars.
In the space of a year, the Azov Battalion became a regiment and now Yarosh has 20 reserve battalions trained for combat and most of that training was provided by American, British and Canadian Army combat instructors. The Frankenstein monster has been unleashed by the West and there is no turning back.
Yarosh ultimately wants total power in Ukraine with which to regroup, recuperate his forces and then crush the Donbass with military force. The current spat is exactly about this issue: Poroshenko is trying to adhere to the Minsk Agreement but Yarosh and his neo-Nazi army want all-out war on the Donbass.
At the current rate of proliferation, Yarosh will soon be able to match the Ukrainian Army in numbers with fanatics who have shown they are willing to fight ten times harder than the regular army. Who is going to win a military confrontation between the neo-Nazi forces and the regular army?
The only advantage the Ukrainian Army has at this time is heavy weaponry and greater numbers but that did them no good at all last year against the Novorossiya Militia.
Arguably the best example of the determination of the neo-Nazis is the battle at Donetsk Airport, a vicious struggle, led by the neo-Nazi National Guard and their unwillingness to surrender, whereas entire battalions of the regular army surrendered elsewhere en masse, some even crossing into Russia.
Despite the current bitter argument between Poroshenko and Yarosh, the Right Sector leader does want to maintain a united front against Donbass but if pushed into a corner from which there is no return, Yarosh will order his troops to take Kiev and overthrow Poroshenko. The bloodshed would rival that of World War II urban combat.
The potential for all-out civil war inside western Ukraine is becoming more severe by the day and if Yarosh can win the support of neo-Nazis in nearby Poland, we could be heading for a series of major armed confrontations with neo-Nazi groups in Eastern Europe.
My own view is that stopping the neo-Nazis in Eastern Europe can no longer be achieved by political and diplomatic means and that we have now arrived at the anti-terrorist or outright military option. Right Sector has grown so rapidly in several months it is impossible to predict what size it will become a year from now but indubitably Yarosh will become the dominant force in Ukraine if the present trend continues.
Right Sector has approximately 20 reserve battalions in Lvov, Krivoy Rog and elsewhere in the country and its active battalions at the front have been withdrawn from the line on the orders of Yarosh.
Mukachevo is a stone’s throw from the border with Hungary and Slovenia, where far Right groups have become powerful, particularly in Hungary. The Misanthropic Division is operating across the whole of Eastern Europe and the potential for armed insurgency is now more likely than ever before.
The Right Sector press office said: “The entire Right Sector military and political movement has been placed on combat alert. The Right Sector is the party of direct action. If they will not hear us, we will have to communicate in other ways. The Presidential administration and the Interior Ministry so that [Interior Minister Arsen] Avakov and President [Petro Poroshenko] could themselves witness the number of people in the Right Sector.”
Estimates put their numbers at around 10,000 armed fighters but this does not take into account their activists in the Ukrainian Police Service, the National Guard, the Azov Regiment and over a dozen more neo-Nazi volunteer battalions similar to the murderous Aidar Battalion.
We can all speculate about the outcome to the crisis in Eastern Europe and the rise of neo-Nazism but one thing is certain; the time for a peaceful solution has gone and the neo-Nazis will not lay down their arms without a fight.
It should be remembered that the mantra of the Misanthropic Division is Töten für WOTAN and a great many neo-Nazis would rather opt for ‘death for Odin’ in battle than surrender.
Perhaps the idiotic leaders of the West realise what they have unleashed on Europe? A year ago, I wrote ‘neo-Nazis do not share power with anyone’ and my prophetic warning is now coming to pass in Ukraine.
Sooner or later, Yarosh will make his move to seize power in Ukraine and it will be come through an incident like Mukachevo and Poroshenko will disappear into the graveyard of history.
Western leaders who thought the neo-Nazis could be used as toys failed to realise that their ideology is one of outright hatred for Zionism and Yarosh simply used the West to further his own strategic ends. In fact, Yarosh is anything but the fool, he has outwitted Western leaders, used their finance to build a neo-Nazi army and is now holding the Poroshenko regime to ransom.
Tonight intelligence services across Eastern Europe will be watching the Right Sector mobilisation with increasing anxiety and nowhere more so than at FSB headquarters in Moscow.
“If we cannot conquer, we will drag the whole world down with us” – Adolf Hitler, Mein Kamp