Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Putin could destroy NATO one phone call

Putin could destroy NATO one phone call

Feb. 3 2015

January 26 is one of three US rating agencies - Standard & Poor's - downgraded Russia's credit rating to speculative 'BB +'. The other two agencies - Fitch and Moody's - while Russia retained for investment grade. Many were upset about it. If even one of these three agencies will lower our rating, it is likely that many foreign lenders ask us ahead of time to pay its debts. Russia will cope, but still better if it was not.

Disaster? Definitely not. Whether it was this expected? Yes I Am. Since the very existence of Russia is not included in the plans of the United States, many politicians, financiers and military America every day looking at a map of the world and very upset. Very easy they have when they think about Putin, his foreign policy and the path that Russia has gone with him.

Are the ratings means of dealing with Russia? Yes I Am. It's like we nomination marks - according to the rules that create and change at will the United States. Obama recently and said, "This is what we have to create the rules." So the American mark for Russia - something unpleasant, but not fatal. This is - a game.

In the game, you can reassure yourself that the Chinese rating agency Dagong puts Russia's credit rating higher than American. In Russia, according to Dagong, - «A» and the US, according to Dagong, - «A". Just because our foreign debt is small, and the US giant to unsupportable debt - $ 18 trillion. Even the Chinese come and their capabilities, from the fact that if anything will help Russia.This was recently said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi

Spotting us poor ratings from the US - is not the only means of fighting with us. It is simply a variant of sanctions. But another option along the way began to frighten. At the State Department, for example, allow leakage that predispose US allies turn off Russia from the international interbank electronic payments system SWIFT. This is a technology that allows to transfer money to any number anywhere in the world within seconds. By the way, the number of SWIFT users Russia ranked second in the world after the United States.

Responded to these threats Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. "We are constantly threatened with additional punishments against our banking system. Once again began to talk about the limitations on system maintenance payments SWIFT. Wait and see what will happen. But, of course, in the case of such decisions would like to note that our economic response, and indeed any other reaction would be, without limitation, "- said Medvedev.

What is behind this mysterious formula? Russian Prime Minister it is not decoded, but in the West, Russia's reaction to the shameless sanctions have many model. For example, a former adviser to President Reagan on economic issues, and now bright publicist Paul Craig Roberts writes: "For example, the Russian government announced:" The attacks on the ruble are political in nature.Once you guys beat on our currency and gives us so much trouble, we decided not to release the next installment in the repayment of its debt that matures in early 2015 ". The European banking system would collapse because its member banks are undercapitalized monstrous. For some of these loans to Russia absorb the entire capital stock. Russia even declare a default is not necessary - simply say, "We do not intend to pay this year. We will do it later, when the ruble has stabilized. "

Roberts sees the vulnerability of the western world's financial system and a colossal amount of derivatives, ie securities issued by other papers. Derivatives - multistage financial liabilities that do not always know where to start.

"It is no secret that the volume of derivatives segment surpasses global GDP. In fact, no one knows who these counterparties. If European banks will start to sink, who will be able to predict how it will affect the entire hulk derivatives? The entire western system - is nothing more than a house of cards, "- said Paul Craig Roberts.

Speaking about the risks Roberts uses the term "black swan". In turn "black swans" introduced the legendary economist of Lebanese origin Nassim Taleb. He became famous for the fact that predicted the global financial crisis in 2008. It then became the primary cause of sudden bursting of the credit bubble in the United States. Here the crisis erupted and. On the eve of the crisis all US rating agencies - those that today are pessimistic about Russia - and a mustache is not blowing, putting the United States to a higher level of reliability.

"Black Swan" Taleb called unpredicted, but fatal events with enormous destructive consequences of global proportions. This, for example, the First World or the terrorist attack in New York on September 11th. By using this term, American journalist and former advisor to Ronald Reagan in economics Paul Craig Roberts writes: "And now for the big" Black Swan ". If Russia finally come out of yourself, it will be enough just to inform European governments that natural gas and other energy resources more NATO countries will not be sold. The consequence of this could be the final and complete collapse of the Alliance. Even the puppet state like Germany will not dare to let the people freezing to death, the industry - to stop, and unemployment - pass for 40%. It just does not happen, and with NATO will be finished. So when Russia decides to destroy NATO, she should just call the European puppets - Merkel, Hollande, Cameron - and say, "You guys are so nice to live in NATO, and we're, you know, NATO members decided to energy no longer sell" . This is - the end of NATO and American power. "

If Russia shut off SWIFT, it is - the war, the head of VTB Andrey Kostin. Yes, it is nearly so.Lawlessness in which conditions, unscientific fantasies, one can imagine anything, including the arrest of Western assets in Russia. How many "Black Swan" fly then, hard to imagine. This is someone you want?

Anyway, while the world this will not make it. Difficulties in Russia compared to the grotesque scenarios are quite working character - a crisis. Not so experienced. But they require from the government a real anti-crisis program, and all of us - to participate. It is important to understand that in the State Duma last week government was not with the program. February 5, our government just present it is anti-crisis program.

January 30 the government presented a plan of priority measures for sustainable economic development and social stability in the coming months, that is, immediate emergency measures, that all was not yet so painful. As for the program to build another model of the economy, other structures, program ever structural reforms that will allow us to get off the oil needle, then such a program the government has yet to develop and present. It yet. How Come? The question is not only to ministers.

Here, the government wants to take under the protection. Not everything depends on it. Much - from our society. Are we ready for such a change? Because then you have to move everything.Actually, since the question of one of the deputies, they say, where you were before with his reforms, and said during a parliamentary debate First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.

"I want to ask, where are we all were once before? I outlined a reason all those achievements that the Russian Federation has for the past 15 years. But all these achievements are the result of social consensus. Is the parliament of the Russian Federation was ready to carry out such stringent measures, as it was in some CIS countries? This reduction of the budget network, and maintaining a population payment handling, for example, initial medical assistance, and increasing the retirement age significantly, according to the increase in life expectancy, and so on. You see, most of all Russia on their shoulders the burdens of the existence of the Soviet economy. The hardest thing came here out of the collapse of the country's fastest accumulated power and the condition in which we find ourselves in at the moment, "- said Shuvalov.

In fact, he returned to the question of where you were before, the deputies and the whole society.After all, we ourselves want everything to be very gentle and at the same time effectively, richly.But there is a classic dilemma - "pension or development." How many people are willing to at least know about it? How many people are willing to realizing his maneuver, personally participate in international competition in which you want to or not Russia is involved? In any case the company will not hear about the "shock therapy". But then still have to at least figure out what we are ready, in order to get off the very oil needle, which is still well scolded. A peeling is necessary, because the oil can be cheaper and more. What then?

While the Government did not offer such reforms are not reported. And Igor Shuvalov explained why. "The government, starting with the 1991-1992, there has always been the agenda of structural reforms. But the way he worked and the first president of Russia, and then Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev - is still the agenda when the changes are not due to the complex human habitation. And we have with you the real achievements of the fight against poverty, increase incomes, including pensioners. This is our common achievement. Need verified absolutely precise agenda, and it must be shared and society and parliament. Imposed structural adjustment, which will be painful and will not be supported by people doomed to failure ", - said Shuvalov.

That is, the government is ready. It remains to understand that they are ready to be all together.To do this, you need to have a discussion, came to the result. The result - a common determination.Sanatorium period ends.

Plan development and stability - is sixty points, sixty-priority measures proposed by the government. Call - already in the title. How to dynamically move forward, maintaining stability? To achieve both objectives at the same time the government intends to spend more than two trillion rubles. In this case the lion's share - nearly two trillion - will go to enhance economic growth, that is, to development. And the stability, which implies the implementation of the State's social obligations laid 300 billion rubles.

Of these, three hundred more than half - 188 billion - will provide indexing insurance pensions to the level of actual inflation in 2014. On February 1, the pension will increase by 11.4%.

52 billion - to fight unemployment, plus 30 billion - payments to those who for a time still falls overboard. 16 billion - in the provision of medicines, 10 - the means of rehabilitation for the disabled.

Enhancing economic growth requires 160 billion for the provision of budget credits regions, 230 - to increase the volume of state guarantees for loans, 24 billion - to support projects of import substitution, $ 10 billion - to support small and medium-sized businesses.

But the main beneficiaries and agents of anti-crisis injections into the economy will be banks. Their capitalization of the National Welfare Fund will be allocated 250 billion rubles. 300 billion separately receive "Vnesheconombank".

Trillion rubles through the Deposit Insurance Agency will be sent to systemically important financial institutions. The list is approved. In the "five" major - VTB, "Gazprombank", "Agricultural Bank", "VTB-24 and" Alfa-Bank. "

"A lot of the criticism that many banks allocated. Measure is absolutely necessary. This money will be used to support or reorganize troubled banks - it will be the means that will expand lending to the real sector ", - said First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.

"The government is the main emphasis is on the development of large banks, for their support and the support of major companies. Today we would like to see more measures to support it second-tier banks that are actually lending to the real sector of the economy ", - said Boris Titov, the Presidential Commissioner for Human entrepreneurs.

"With the current key rate can not be solved any question ruble, nor question lending to the real sector of the economy. Allocation of special funding for banks - probably a useful measure, but we must be very clear about which companies will be credited, financed or refinanced, "- said Alexander Brechalov, co-chair of the Central Staff of the Popular Front, the secretary of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation.

Banks that have received state aid will be required each month to build a portfolio of loans to enterprises and farmers. While business activity paralyzes the high cost of credit due to the high key rate of the Central Bank.

January 30 The Bank of Russia announced its decline - as long as 2 percentage points. The regulator is forced to seek a middle ground. After all, even a cautious easing immediately reflected in the rate of the ruble - the dollar rises above 71, the euro reached 80 rubles. But the oil market seems sprang. Brent crude for the week has risen from 48 to 53 dollars per barrel. In the US, declining production. Oilers massively close unprofitable wells.

However, the rosy illusions Russian government nurtures and encourages the work in the harsh conditions of low oil prices. Ministry of Economy presented a new forecast for 2015.

The average annual cost of a barrel is reduced by half - from 100 to 50 dollars. The outlook for inflation, on the other hand, increased by half - from 5 to 12%. Of GDP plus goes to minus. Back in September, waiting for growth, now - a fall of 3%.

Tenth of the budget will have to cut costs. Exceptions - defense and agriculture. The audit was waiting and large construction projects. Priority - those who will concentrate new jobs. In contrast to the crisis of 2008 will not help employers and employees, stressed Shuvalov - retraining, public works. Families at the same time be allowed to get your hands on 20,000 of the parent capital.Prices for food and medicines will be closely monitored by the FAS.

Specific comments on the fractions should be ready within a week. By April 1, the new realities of the budget in 2015 should be finally approved.

Friends! We will show how many of us against the regime of the United States?

Stand united patriotic front! Russia's population of 140 million people, of which 127,000 have already stood under the banner of anti-US!

We will show the world how many of us!

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