Thursday, February 19, 2015

"Blue helmets" to the Donbas ...

"Blue helmets" to the Donbas...
Date: 02.20.2015
Kiev insists on entering peacekeepers in the conflict zone.

Kiev intends to appeal to the UN and the European Union with a request to deploy peacekeepers in the Donbass. On Wednesday, Feb. 18, said the president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko .

At the Council of National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Poroshenko proposed to consider the invitation to the peacekeeping mission, which will operate in accordance with the mandate of the UN Security Council. However, he noted that he considers optimal format of the international presence of the EU Police Mission. According to the head of the Ukrainian state, the question of entering the peacekeepers was discussed at the talks "Norman Quartet.""I am sure it will be the most effective guarantor of peace" - added Poroshenko.

As later told Secretary of the National Security Council , Alexander Turchinov , members of the Council supported the presidential initiative, and decided to go to the UN and the EU "to deploy the Ukraine peacekeeping operations." That in principle - to offer a place NSDC peacekeepers not only on the demarcation line in the conflict zone, but not along the Kiev-controlled part of the border with Russia. "This is what will provide real steps peaceful settlement in Ukraine," - said Turchinov.

Initially, in Donetsk to the intention of Kiev neutral. "If you want to enter, we do not mind," - said the representative of the Ministry of Defense DNR Edward Basurin . Later, however, understand the situation, he said: "I was referring to the introduction of peacekeepers on the border between Ukraine and the DNR."

As a result, Donetsk and Lugansk a coordinated position, voiced by DNR envoy Dennis Pushilin . "Appeal NSDC to UN peacekeepers on how to enter on the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Donbass is a violation of a package of measures to implement the Minsk Agreement, which prescribes the question Ukraine border to coordinate with the host, and this will take place after the completion of the municipal elections and constitutional reform," - said DNR envoy.

According Pushilin, DNR and LC sent a joint letter to heads of official Russia, France and Germany to "return to the path of Kiev peaceful settlement."

In Moscow, the proposal Poroshenko immediately angered. State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin said that the direction of peacekeepers in eastern Ukraine provided by the Minsk Agreement. "This may be an element of erosion agreements", - said Naryshkin.

And according to Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin , "it is necessary to plant weapons and not to engage in new initiatives", otherwise there is a suspicion that the Minsk agreement "want to break up."

What in fact is behind the initiative of Kiev, will the EU or the UN peacekeeping force to enter in the Donbass?

- There are two motives that explain the initiative of Kiev, - said the director of the political conjuncture Sergei Mikheyev . - Apparently, after the defeat at Debaltseve Poroshenko seriously afraid that in case of failure of the Minsk Agreement militias continue to advance further north. Kiev is clearly not confident in their own abilities, and wants an obstacle on the way stood some troops from the European Union. In this case, according to Kiev, the militias - and, hence, Russia - did not dare to move forward.

The second motive - the US, via Ukraine, would involve the European Union peacekeepers by entering into direct military conflict. In this case, the events in the region will be developed on the rise - and here is the great war, to which the Americans were pushing Russia first, and now Europe.

To cancel: peacekeepers in the Donbass are theoretically possible. But not from the European Union and the United States.However, apparently, and not from Russia. Hypothetical peacekeepers must be absolutely neutral people from countries that are not related to any of the parties to the conflict. Which countries could match this criterion - hard to say.

"SP": - How principle that peacekeepers took control of the border between Russia and Novorussia?

- It is crucial for the Donetsk and Lugansk. This would be tantamount to military encirclement of New Russia, and the prospect of such an environment is quite clear - the DNI and the LC or strangle in the ring of the blockade, or to resume offensive operations against them.

However - theoretically - control over this area could take disinterested peacekeepers. I do not see anything wrong in the fact that they can exercise control over the flow of arms.

The fact that in Donetsk and Luhansk - especially after Debaltsevskoy operations - weapons and equipment more than enough. Most of the techniques that have cast a "pot" Ukrainian army, can certainly lead to a working state. This means that now Novorossia sufficiently strong armed group.

"SP": - The European Union understands that the United States wants to draw him into the conflict, whether Americans are to achieve this goal?

- I think, involve the EU in Ukrainian conflict is possible. In the end, the Americans managed to drag Europe into Afghanistan, Libya, the fight against terrorism "Islamic state". Another thing is that the consequences of Ukrainian "pull" will be quite different. If in the same Afghanistan must be fought with scattered field units in the Donbas it could be a much more serious collisions.

But in theory, again, this is quite possible. At least in recent years Europe subscribes to the military actions of the Americans.

"SP": - The Russian leadership may change position on the peacekeepers in the Donbass?

- I think it can. But in any case, Moscow will be against peacekeepers from Western countries. However, other proposals from Poroshenko did not arrive yet ...

- There is an international standard applicable to the entry of any peacekeeping troops - a mandate must be obtained from both sides of the conflict - said the president of the Center for Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko system . - Moreover, both parties must guarantee the security of peacekeepers. This means that without the consent of the militia no peacekeepers in the Donbass can not appear at all.

Even if we assume that the international community decides to ignore the opinion of the militia (in the end, the Americans to war in Somalia - why do not they do some fighting in the Donbass), then to the east of Ukraine appeared peacekeepers should be adopted by the UN Security Council decision - because Poroshenko asks UN peacekeepers. In the UN Security Council, to remind you of Russia has a veto, and the decision block. This is evidenced by the position Churkin, who represents Russia at the UN, and just said nothing publicly. Position is that Moscow is the fact of treatment of Kiev in the UN regards as a violation of the Minsk Agreement, because according to them to monitor the situation were imposed by the OSCE.

"SP": - A European Union Police Mission, which Poroshenko considers "optimal format" in the Donbass can appear?

- Yes, the European Union - in theory - could be sent to the Donbass its police mission. But in this case the EU becomes a party to the conflict, and an ally of Kiev. This is a very serious political decision - primarily the EU. And it is unlikely it will Europe.

- Outside the EU peacekeeping police mission at the behest of Europe is not possible to carry it out will still require the consent of the UN Security Council - says a leading expert of the Center for Military-Political Studies, MGIMO, Doctor of Political Sciences Mikhail Alexandrov . -Mirotvorcheskaya Mission possible in a different format, but then you have the consent of all parties - Ukraine, DNI, LC and Russia (once it comes to the Russian border area). Otherwise, no mission is impossible.

Essentially, Poroshenko is now trying to incite Europeans in fighting on the territory of Donbas. Before that Kiev was trying to incite a conflict of Americans seeking the supply of arms from the United States. If the European Union "Command" on this idea, in the Donbass would occur a sharp escalation of the conflict, with further - almost inevitable - Americans connected to it. A version of this one, but the most Poroshenko, is not satisfied.

In my opinion, the idea of ​​placing peacekeepers quite erratic, and support in Europe will not find.

"SP": - Why does not enter peacekeepers was discussed at the "Norman Quartet" (according to Poroshenko), the final text of the Minsk Agreement of him not a word?- The parties have agreed not corny. Most likely, Donetsk and Lugansk Republic demanded that the peacekeepers were only from the CIS countries, and Kiev only wanted a contingent of NATO member countries or the EU. Negotiate multilaterally on "four" failed, and it alone for the same EU is unreal - it will not be entering peacekeepers and military operation under the auspices of the NATO-type war in Yugoslavia. To provoke a war no one Kiev will not allow ...

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