Saturday, December 20, 2014

The end of the life cycle of the project "Ukraine is not Russia"

The end of the life cycle of the project "Ukraine is not Russia"
Oleg Tsarev, President of the Parliament of New Russia
Photos: from a personal page
December 19, 2014 10:00

A year has passed since then, as many Ukrainians took to the Maidan, wanting to "improve life" in his understanding - to integrate the country into Europe. You can summarize and draw conclusions, but, to put it mildly, they are disappointing.

The first conclusion: Maidan was very well prepared

"Only Donetsk for 10 months fulfilled budget revenues by 89.2%"And there was this training is not to "cookies" Victoria Nuland, as before - with Kravchuk and Kuchma, who generously handed out public property "his people" with Yushchenko, who finally ruined the economy and the army, and Yanukovych and his "looking" in all fields .

Only in the last 15 years, depreciation of fixed assets increased from 40 to 80% and above. As a result, by the beginning of 2014 was created by catastrophic preddefoltnom state. Foreign exchange reserves declined to $ 15 billion, insolvency of the country has risen to 65%, showing almost absolute record.

Media, for comparison, the following data: for Russian insurers assess the risk of bankruptcy in 17%. The total debt of Ukraine today is equal to all creditors of the Ukrainian economy astronomical sum - $ 65 billion.

Got ordinary Ukrainians in this? The Budget retains the priority of payment of regions and population, the hryvnia since the beginning of the year has lost almost half its value in relation to the dollar and 42% against the euro.

The fall of the state of the monetary unit is accompanied by an increase in food prices. Inflation has already reached 20%.

The second conclusion: Ukraine since independence subsidized Russia

This occurred primarily through under-pricing of energy.

The amount of subsidy has exceeded $ 100 billion, and after the conclusion of the famous "otsidochnogo contract Tymoshenko" for gas required to pay real money, a black hole in the Ukrainian economy under the name "Naftogaz", which already carries 4-5% of GDP per year (or 5- $ 7 billion) in the form of damages.

Maidan was very well prepared. And there was this training is not to "cookies" Victoria Nuland for $ 5 billion, and earlier (photo: MAXIM SHIPENKOV / EPA / TASS)

Of course, the state treasury became empty if not today, made its contribution and Yanukovych. However, now it is replenished direct emissions NBU, which, according to the same Tymoshenko closer to the size of the budget, exceeding this year's $ 300 billion. And this is actually financial death state.

The third conclusion: looting continues

And he went public, which led came to power after the Maidan Kolomojsky Poroshenko, Yatseniuk.

It all started with the removal of all gold reserves immediately after the coup and continues to supply the zone ATO, technical pumping oil from the pipeline "Ukrnafta" and on the appropriation of 5 billion cubic meters of gas Firtash (purchased at Gazprombank loan of 1.4 billion dollars to save the chemical industry of Ukraine ).

Also, do not stop and direct takeovers of competitors. The last major raid seizure occurred in Odessa, where he was captured by the oil refinery.

Conclusion Four: "Western partners" strenuously pretending that everything is in order

Unrestrained emissions and the actual freezing of the currency market, banks default on return of deposits, the failure of the budget - all eyes are closed. IMF, incidentally, has no right to its mandate to give money a country that is at war.

But the market can not be fooled. CDS (credit default swaps) for Ukraine, the quotations of eurobonds and domestic currency bonds going wild, showing the inevitability of default. And business publications (Economist, Welt et al.), Investors are beginning to prepare for the inevitable: that if Ukraine does not soon give another 20-25 billion dollars (plus the program IMF / EU 37 billion dollars), it declared bankruptcy.

Annual interest rate of the loan Ukrainian shot from 10% at the beginning of the year to an unprecedented 27% today. None of the analysts could not recall such an incredible percentage jump.

No less rose high in the eyes of insurers and the risk of a possible bankruptcy of Ukraine. In early 2014, this probability was estimated at 49%, which is too much, during the same poignant moments of confrontation with Russia, this figure jumped to 60%.

Conclusion Five: Ukraine has no money

Foreign exchange reserves of the NBU microscopic and consist almost entirely of useless papers (T-bills, there's even a rumor that the $ 6 billion of them in general have changed on the trash - obankrochennogo shares in 2008 "LemanBrazers"), the currency of the exporters do not sell, because they themselves are in preddefoltnom condition. Importers can not even buy the currency to buy critical imports.

In this Kolomoysky delivers cheesy vests for the price of gold chain mail and increases its statutory fund "Private", reducing its debt to the state budget.

Ukraine boasts that increased its exports for the year, nedogovarivaya that it happened almost through the export of food residues, especially grain. What will happen in the spring and what to feed people - the government does not care.

Coal for thermal power plants no longer be

In the Donbass coal fly can not for ideological reasons, as is, in the words of Yatsenyuk - "terrorist financing".Ukraine holds all power in the supply of nuclear fuel (fuel rods) Rosatom (almost 50% of generation).

Winter is coming, or "earth" by the characteristic clause Klitschko and heat supply residents of the country in question.

Attempts to command the new powers that Ukraine reduced to a desire not only to "throw" Russia and the owners of Eurobonds (half of which $ 17.5 billion US fund owns Templeton), but also of its own citizens - otherwise the operation is "robbery on the default" will not burn out.

They are also trying to cut off the rebellious Ukrainian Donbass of the financial system and close government offices and banks in the DNI and LC. And simply put, throw in the lurch more than 4 million of our citizens, saying that Donbass pays nothing. Such attempts, in their opinion, will revive and will keep the Ukrainian economy.

Kiev brings its collapse

Only Donetsk for 10 months fulfilled budget revenues by 89.2%. Now retired in the region say that pensions are not paid to Kiev in July, as the social contribution is not listed. However, since January Donetsk only listed as a single social contribution 5.519 billion hryvnia. Of these, 4,746 went to PF.

It is also worth recalling that the Donbass - it's almost a third of the industry, nearly all the coal and a quarter of exports.

The conclusion from the above suggests only one: the crisis is coming, and it will take place in various formats:
1. Paralysis fiscal and banking systems. Defaulted to depositors (in relation to the depositors of the Crimea and the Donbass he has already occurred). Months of delays in payment of salaries, pensions and allowances. Capturing business competitors (especially Firtash, Akhmetov, Yanukovych's team). Robbery remnants of government property. The final bankruptcy "Naftogaz".

But the key element of this decay process of the economy - the default state to its own people, which may not occur as a direct rejection of all social obligations, and through the launch of hyperinflation. This - total war, only facing inland.

2. Maybe - parallel or a little later - external uncontrollable default, the signal that will put the failure of the IMF program (the next tranche will be delayed until the implementation of Kiev at least some conditions). After that, you can pick up for next to nothing of Ukraine's GTS (it is necessary only when an agreement with Gazprom) and other "carrots".

3. Total War with Novorussia (or Russian) is possible as a consequence or a distraction from complete economic collapse and chaos. Like, in the current economic situation Maidan not guilty. But here believe it?


Today Ukraine needs a volume infusion of at least 100-120 billion dollars - it can even stop the sharp economic downturn. If such injections will not, GDP will shrink to 50%, and this is meant the collapse of the entire economy.

The terminal station of the way - a disaster and utter bankruptcy, which would be an unprecedented test not only for the people of Ukraine, but also for Russia, Europe and the world. And we can not stop the crisis; You can still try to "translate arrows" on the siding Antimaydana and Russian world, but such options inspirers Maidana just mentally not available.

Therefore, the collapse is inevitable.

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